COVID 19 App

Based on an idea by twitter user @jeuasommenulle I developed a small shiny app covering global data on a per-country basis. You find it here. The central idea is to estimate the factor R, that is the number of people one active new case will infect. If that value drops below 1, the epidemic will die out. Based on this estimation, and the observation that China eased lockdown after R dropped below 0.3, the likely date of easing of lockdown is estimated based on the average of change in R over the last couple of days (default 7 days). You can change the key input to the model estimating R.

Another part of the app allows you to plot the historic development of cases, total cases, deaths, total deaths, active and total active cases, as well as print a table with the historic development for a chosen country.

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