I added some content to my original post on COVID 19, namely
- Correction of an elemental error in the estimation of number of confirmed cases from an exponential trend
- Projection of the next week based on the initial estimation
- Estimation of a trend in the growth rate
- Projection of the next week based on a projection of the growth rate
You find the post at https://rpubs.com/owejessen/584381. The main conclusion is, not surprisingly, that the future outcome very much depends on the estimation of the growth rate. Predicting the number of cases in one weeks time based on the average growth rate of the sample yields 123,613 for Italy and 13,731 for Germany (original prediction in the graph). Considering the downward trend in the growth rate leads to a projection of 24,726 for Italy, and 4,745 for Germany (revised prediction in the graph).